Foreign Policy II

The Confusion: India’s   Afghan Approach    

Gandhar, the mystic country described in the epic of Mahabharata or the modern day Afghanistan with whom India has shared deep historical, cultural, and strategic partnership. Unfortunately, today the country has become a critical conflict zone as far as geo politics is concerned.  Once, Gandhar was known for its natural bounty and today it has become a land where countries play proxies against each others. Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow, DC, etc all have their own strategic interests to serve but for New Delhi, the land has become a cause of serious concern considering India’s national security. No doubt Kabul has been a good friend of India, yet the relations are not in tune. For more than a decade now, India has been a silent spectator to the proxies Islamabad played against her yet, she never gave up her commitment to help Afghanistan and its people live good life. Due to many developmental projects pursued by New Delhi in Afghan; India has earned deep respect among Afghan nationals still the country has become a bounty for terrorists who along with ISI plot terror attacks against India. Recent visit by Afghan President to India, it seems has failed to harbour any substantial progress towards regaining the lost opportunity which both India and Afghanistan share. And for this both nations are equally responsiblr for.

Historically, India has always indulged in blame game when it came to action. It is said action speaks louder than word. But instead India always leaned on US and impotently blamed Pakistan for having marginalized her presence. None but India is to be blamed for the mess she created for herself and the threats that she invited for herself by letting Islamabad play the games. Now, with the rise and rise of ISIS and possibility of its presence has added flavours to India’s security concerns.

2014 was a year of watershed moments for both India and Afghanistan. Both the countries broke away from the past and new leadership was voted to power. But till then, the damage had already been done. India had been very cautiously sidelined by Islamabad and Kabul had drifted away from India. Afghan President’s first visit as head of the state was to Pakistan underlying the importance that Kabul holds for Islamabad (More so for Rawalpindi). Taliban and Haqqani Network have already created a havoc in Afghanistan killing innocent lives and as always the targets have been Indian and foreign esp. US nationals. The situation has worsened. While India was preparing for oath taking ceremony of the newly elected leadership, Taliban attacked India embassy in Kabul in May 2014 as a signal of loyalty to Pakistan’s military establishment. Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif was invited for the ceremony in India and at the same time  the borders were tensed. There was a message that Islamabad has again gained importance and even if new Indian government tries to regain its lost ground, it shall backfire. The Afghans have been vulnerable to Islamic aggression given the rise of terrorist organisations and remain so widely accepting the fact that India too is prone to terror attacks.

 India has always been a cordial to extend her support to developments in Afghan. Building infrastructure and improving connectivity within Afghanistan has always topped the to do list for India.  India provides scholarships to thousands of Afghan students every year. India trained the Afghan Army personnel’s and intelligence officers. She invested in soft power a lot but failed to yield any substantive bilateral gains. After US, UK, Japan and Germany, India is the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan.

The NATO troops shall completely withdraw by 2016 and this is the precise cause of great concern for India. It is time for India to sell herself as net security provider. Although India could be asked to manage afghan air space once US withdraws completely and provide security there, it remains to be seen how Kabul responds to the US’s suggestions. Current leadership in Kabul seems to appease Islamabad [Rawalpindi specifically. The signing of intelligence pact between afghan intelligence and ISI is evident of the fact. This may prove to be    a dead end for Afghanistan but gives life support to Pakistan which is currently under serious internal crisis. This pact with ISI hints directly that India’s security is at risk and India herself is to be blamed for.  Although the India Afghanistan and Pakistan triangle is more about connectivity to Central Asia yet the countries are fighting for their survival and security.

In this hour of crisis, it seems that Indo afghan ties are in no mood to accelerate unless the leadership of both countries take a note of that. With President Ghani’s soft approach towards Pakistan, it is quite evident that it is suicidal tendencies are at rise in Afghanistan but some sense prevailed and that pact has been backtracked. Yet, it sends strong signals to New Delhi that time has come for her to take some decisive actions.

Till today, India never entered the Afghan war since 2001 thinking it to be America’s war, but it seems the war has now come to Delhi’s shores and unless some cautious yet drastic and definite steps are not taken, its a lost story for India and South East Asia at large. As a weak and vulnerable India is not good for the South East Asian region. Time for some strict actions and doing away with confusion.

Foreign Policy

India And the Chaotic World

We live in the world full of chaos & violence. Diplomacy has seen some aggressive changes in past some years. The very ideal of expansionism is being vigorously pursued by world powers. From America to Europe to Africa and Asia, a well scripted game is being played. The world politics is seeing some major shifts as a result of instability, either already present or planted.

The geo politics today, faces a great challenge. The present chaos therefore is a big test for the diplomatic world to come to terms with. Extremism instead of peace has emerged as an important tool to destabilize some powers and maintain the supremacy. As a result everyone's busy playing their own trump cards. Some of the best examples are: US and Russia at constant loggerheads. The European Union is in deep economic & social trouble. While Africa is witnessing the rise & rise of Islamic extremism which has stumbled its growth story. The ray of hope , hence, where some logic prevails , seems to be Asia. Economically as well as socially. Yet in Asia, we observe a lot of strategic hits n misses. The Middle East is going through a really hard time and in South East Asia we are staring at a rise of possible power tussle between India and China. In Indian Sub continent , a major problem today, is Pakistan and its policy of using terrorism as a part of state policy vis-à-vis India. While the Asian Countries have not yet achieved substantial progress in eliminating economic and social evils, yet, some Asian powers use terror as an effective tool in foreign policy. China has created problems due to its own attitude. China n its neighbor are always at verbal wars with each others. Constant conflicts thus, leading to troubled bilateral relations is a common thread that narrates the Asian Story.

So, between all the chaos, instability and violence, how well is India positioned?

Let us summarize some recent developments and India's long standing diplomatic past.

A very minute observation is:: India is a changed nation. Today's Indian policy of engaging with the world is far away from Nehru's romantic and neutral plus non alignment theory. Today's India is multi aligned, multi engaged and pragmatic yet assertive.

Off late, India never sided with nor did it took deep interest in geo political matters. The nation was consistent on its non alignment stand, well propagating the message of ''Live and let Live''. This has heavily earned good reputation for India in those areas where interference by world powers has become a daily affair. The recent rescue ops that India carried in Syria, Yemen, Nepal etc  proved that NAM (non alignment movement) and India's neutral stand on all outstanding multilateral issues , are a result of good will that India has earned. While the NAM without doubt has been success story for India, it had its own back drops. Example : India's presence in Indian Ocean Region was limited, at times drifted the small states towards China which is a possible threat to India's strategic n deep national interest.

But change is law of Nature. With a  rise of new aspirations in India and with advent of strong geo political games perused thoroughly world wide, slowly but steadily, India is moving towards multi alignment. Earlier the tussle between US n Russia and a heavy lobbying by some big powers , influenced India's foreign policy which resulted in confusion. The best narrative is that of India's stand as against Pakistan n Af-Pak region. Yet, the new India doesn't hesitates engaging more with world. What explains the drastic change? Same Country, same set of bureaucrats and same office still there's a change of narrative in South Block and a change of perception in New Delhi's view of world. It is engaged like never before, it is busy like never before and most importantly it is asserting itself like never before. What's the change then? The change is that of aspirations. The change is that of perspective. The change is definitely that of leadership.

The biggest change is India has started asserting herself loud and clear that She shall fall prey to lobbying not anymore. She shall not allow interface by any world power in her narrative towards the world. No more is she shy of using her deep strategic asset of Soft Power! Her strong cultural bonds with nations at large. In fact this is definitely the deep asset that brought Sri Lanka, Bhutan n Nepal more close to India. She has again started saying that her sole motto is ''Let the life on earth be happy'' Let it be Yemen, Syria, Nepal, Iraq etc, she has made it clear that peace n co operation withy mutual respect and dignity is in her DNA. Her ancient beliefs are still relevant and her mantra of universal tolerance, universal acceptance n universal brotherhood is still intact and when time comes she shall remind the World about it again n again.

India maintains a large army. Yet she uses it not to wage a war nor to preach peace but to protect her national interest and to help humanity at large. Recent relief and rescue efforts by India in Nepal are the best examples.

Recent trip by Indian Premiere to China is best suited to explain how Indian diplomacy is going through dramatic change. Status of Indo China ties remains: Its Complicated but that doesn't means there’s a full stop! Yet the joint statement refers that unless disputes resolved there cannot be business as usual. This assertion. This dynamism is something that many commentators on Foreign Policy have missed. This shows that 'Bold yet Pragmatic India' has finally arrived on world stage. Late it may be though, but India has arrived! As the saying goes, Better late than never.