Foreign Policy II

The Confusion: India’s   Afghan Approach    

Gandhar, the mystic country described in the epic of Mahabharata or the modern day Afghanistan with whom India has shared deep historical, cultural, and strategic partnership. Unfortunately, today the country has become a critical conflict zone as far as geo politics is concerned.  Once, Gandhar was known for its natural bounty and today it has become a land where countries play proxies against each others. Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow, DC, etc all have their own strategic interests to serve but for New Delhi, the land has become a cause of serious concern considering India’s national security. No doubt Kabul has been a good friend of India, yet the relations are not in tune. For more than a decade now, India has been a silent spectator to the proxies Islamabad played against her yet, she never gave up her commitment to help Afghanistan and its people live good life. Due to many developmental projects pursued by New Delhi in Afghan; India has earned deep respect among Afghan nationals still the country has become a bounty for terrorists who along with ISI plot terror attacks against India. Recent visit by Afghan President to India, it seems has failed to harbour any substantial progress towards regaining the lost opportunity which both India and Afghanistan share. And for this both nations are equally responsiblr for.

Historically, India has always indulged in blame game when it came to action. It is said action speaks louder than word. But instead India always leaned on US and impotently blamed Pakistan for having marginalized her presence. None but India is to be blamed for the mess she created for herself and the threats that she invited for herself by letting Islamabad play the games. Now, with the rise and rise of ISIS and possibility of its presence has added flavours to India’s security concerns.

2014 was a year of watershed moments for both India and Afghanistan. Both the countries broke away from the past and new leadership was voted to power. But till then, the damage had already been done. India had been very cautiously sidelined by Islamabad and Kabul had drifted away from India. Afghan President’s first visit as head of the state was to Pakistan underlying the importance that Kabul holds for Islamabad (More so for Rawalpindi). Taliban and Haqqani Network have already created a havoc in Afghanistan killing innocent lives and as always the targets have been Indian and foreign esp. US nationals. The situation has worsened. While India was preparing for oath taking ceremony of the newly elected leadership, Taliban attacked India embassy in Kabul in May 2014 as a signal of loyalty to Pakistan’s military establishment. Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif was invited for the ceremony in India and at the same time  the borders were tensed. There was a message that Islamabad has again gained importance and even if new Indian government tries to regain its lost ground, it shall backfire. The Afghans have been vulnerable to Islamic aggression given the rise of terrorist organisations and remain so widely accepting the fact that India too is prone to terror attacks.

 India has always been a cordial to extend her support to developments in Afghan. Building infrastructure and improving connectivity within Afghanistan has always topped the to do list for India.  India provides scholarships to thousands of Afghan students every year. India trained the Afghan Army personnel’s and intelligence officers. She invested in soft power a lot but failed to yield any substantive bilateral gains. After US, UK, Japan and Germany, India is the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan.

The NATO troops shall completely withdraw by 2016 and this is the precise cause of great concern for India. It is time for India to sell herself as net security provider. Although India could be asked to manage afghan air space once US withdraws completely and provide security there, it remains to be seen how Kabul responds to the US’s suggestions. Current leadership in Kabul seems to appease Islamabad [Rawalpindi specifically. The signing of intelligence pact between afghan intelligence and ISI is evident of the fact. This may prove to be    a dead end for Afghanistan but gives life support to Pakistan which is currently under serious internal crisis. This pact with ISI hints directly that India’s security is at risk and India herself is to be blamed for.  Although the India Afghanistan and Pakistan triangle is more about connectivity to Central Asia yet the countries are fighting for their survival and security.

In this hour of crisis, it seems that Indo afghan ties are in no mood to accelerate unless the leadership of both countries take a note of that. With President Ghani’s soft approach towards Pakistan, it is quite evident that it is suicidal tendencies are at rise in Afghanistan but some sense prevailed and that pact has been backtracked. Yet, it sends strong signals to New Delhi that time has come for her to take some decisive actions.

Till today, India never entered the Afghan war since 2001 thinking it to be America’s war, but it seems the war has now come to Delhi’s shores and unless some cautious yet drastic and definite steps are not taken, its a lost story for India and South East Asia at large. As a weak and vulnerable India is not good for the South East Asian region. Time for some strict actions and doing away with confusion.